By James M. Halliday, Associate EditorPublished Nov 03, 2018 10:03:33Rainfall forecasts for the western United States will be better this summer than last year.
A new model developed by the University of California, Davis, shows that rainfall could exceed rainfall levels in some regions in some areas this summer, the university announced Monday.
The model, which uses satellite data to predict rainfall amounts in California, Oregon, Nevada and Washington, shows rain totals will exceed average levels in parts of the western U.S. for the first time in more than a century.
The new forecast is an important milestone in climate change mitigation efforts and is expected to boost the federal government’s efforts to reduce global warming.
The new model shows the U.C. Davis model will likely produce more rain than the average, according to an updated forecast.
The models’ predictions for precipitation for next summer were in line with what was forecast in January, but they did not accurately reflect the current weather.
The model was developed by researchers at the University.
“We think that, in general, the rain-related extremes are likely to be less extreme than they have been in the past,” said Tom Fenton, director of the UC Davis Climate Impacts Program.
Rainfall totals will not be in the thousands, but will be much lower.
The average rain amount in the U, S. and N.C., in January and February, was more than 3.3 inches, Fenton said.
That was also the lowest amount ever recorded in the continental U.K., Canada and Alaska.
In some areas, such as the northern half of the Great Plains, rain will be lower.
Rainfall totals for the Great Lakes region will likely fall in the hundreds of inches, according the model.
The Great Lakes and the Mississippi River Basin will be drier than average.
Fenton said this model shows rainfall could be more extreme in some parts of California and other parts of Oregon and Nevada than previously thought.
In southern parts of those states, for example, rain is forecast to be above average in some places, including the San Joaquin Valley, and in other parts, such that rainfall will be below average.
California’s climate is warmer than average due to climate change.
The state has warmed over the past century, but recent years have been cooler than previous years.
Fenton said the models are not able to predict exactly how much rainfall the climate will have over the next few years, but that it is likely that more rain will fall in some locations than others.
Rainfalls are forecast to peak in Oregon and California by late summer, Fenton noted.
He said there are some areas where it is forecast that the state will not have much rain at all, such a dry spot in Oregon’s Columbia River basin, or areas that are not expected to have much precipitation.
Fenton stressed that the forecasts are based on what is likely to happen in the future.
“There are some very, very interesting parts of that model that are very different from what is currently happening,” he said.
“This model is not predicting rain at a level of the future that will happen in California and Oregon.
The prediction is that precipitation will peak around mid-June, maybe even earlier in the summer than we have now.”
Fentons research shows that there will be more rain in the northern regions of the U., S. or N.W. in summer.
Fentons model shows rain is expected in the mid-70s in parts or all of western and central Oregon and to be near 100 in some northern areas, which include parts of eastern Washington.
Fentsons model showed rain will peak in eastern Washington and parts of western Washington by mid-August.
Fentsons models are based mostly on observations of the weather, but the models can be modified to incorporate some additional information.
Fortunons models also show that the rain will increase in the central U.W., but not as much as Fenton and others predict.
In Washington, the model shows a slight increase in precipitation from late July to early August, but it is unlikely to exceed the previous peak of about 150 inches in early August.
The models have been updated several times to include more information and to incorporate new observations, according and a news release.
The U.N. has warned that climate change is altering the climate in some ways that may lead to more extreme rainfall and floods in some countries, especially in the tropics.
The climate change also may increase the risk of more intense storms and extreme flooding in many parts of Africa, Asia and South America, the report said.
The United Nations climate change conference, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is expected on Nov. 13-15 in Paris, France.